ABSTRACT
Objective To analyze the death trend of children under 5 years old in Lanzhou and establish the time series model to predict the mortality and incidence of children under 5 years old in Lanzhou in 2019. Methods Descriptive epidemiological method was used to analyze the mortality of children under 5 years old in Lanzhou from January 2010 to December 2018. SPSS 21.0 software was used to construct time series analysis model, selecting the best model and predict the mortality of children under 5 years old in Lanzhou in 2019. Results A total of 1 650 deaths of children under 5 years old were reported in Lanzhou from 2010 to 2018. The number of deaths reported by boys and girls was 871 and 774 respectively, with an average annual mortality rate of 6.23‰. In recent years, the overall mortality rate of children under 5 years old in Lanzhou had declined. The majority of deaths among children under 5 years old were neonates, accounting for 65.27%. Simple seasonal model was the best model by comparing different models. The model could well fit the monthly death cases of children under 5 years old in Lanzhou from 2010 to 2018. It is predicted that the total number of deaths of children under 5 years old in Lanzhou will be 140 in 2019, which is similar to the number of deaths in 2018. Conclusions The mortality rate of children under 5 years old in Lanzhou is decreasing year by year. Simple seasonal model can better reflect the mortality trend of children under 5 years old in Lanzhou and make short-term prediction.